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1.
中尺度暖涡对热带气旋强度变化的影响及作用机制   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
基于两组理想化数值试验,对比研究了分布于热带气旋不同位置处的海洋中尺度暖涡所引发的热带气旋强度变化的时空特征。研究发现,热带气旋中心附近的暖涡对热带气旋强度有增强作用,而位于热带气旋外围的暖涡则会抑制热带气旋的发展。本研究将暖涡增强(减弱)热带气旋强度的区域称为内(外)区。随着时间的推移,内(外)区暖涡对热带气旋强度的增强(减弱)幅度逐渐减小(增大),区域范围同步减小(增大)。内区暖涡增强了热带气旋的次级环流和结构对称性、增加了海气界面热通量,同时减弱了外围螺旋雨带,进而导致热带气旋强度增强;若暖涡在外区,其对热带气旋的作用相反,导致热带气旋强度减弱。由于理想化试验中热带气旋静止不动,因此研究结果可能只适用于传播速度较慢的热带气旋。本研究结果有助于更好地理解热带气旋和海洋中尺度暖涡之间的相互作用,并通过引入热带气旋外区暖涡的影响助力提高热带气旋强度预报工作。  相似文献   
2.
We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model to analyze how hypoxia effects on reproduction, growth, and mortality of Atlantic croaker in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico lead to population-level responses. The model follows the hourly growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement of individuals on a 300 × 800 spatial grid of 1-km2 cells for 140 years. Chlorophyll-a concentration, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were specified daily for each grid cell and repeated for each year of the simulation. A bioenergetics model was used to represent growth, mortality was assumed stage- and age-dependent, and the movement behavior of juveniles and adults was modeled based on temperature and avoidance of low DO. Hypoxia effects were imposed using exposure effect submodels that converted time-varying exposures to low DO to reduced hourly growth, increased hourly mortality, and reduced annual fecundity. Results showed that 100 years of either mild or intermediate hypoxia produced small reductions in population abundance, while repeated severe hypoxia caused a 19% reduction in long-term population abundance. Relatively few individuals were exposed to low DO each hour, but many individuals experienced some exposure. The response was dominated by a 5% average reduction in annual fecundity of individuals. Under conditions of random sequences of mild, intermediate, and severe hypoxia years occurring in proportion to their historical frequency, the model predicted a 10% decrease in the long-term population abundance of croaker. A companion paper substitutes hourly DO values from a three-dimensional water quality model for the idealized hypoxia and results in a more realistic population reduction of about 25%.  相似文献   
3.
Approximately 13 km south of Gulf Shores, Alabama (United States), divers found in situ baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) stumps 18 m below the ocean surface. These trees could have only lived when sea level fell during the Pleistocene subaerially exposing the tectonically stable continental shelf. Here we investigate the geophysical properties along with microfossil and stratigraphical analyses of sediment cores to understand the factors that lead to this wood’s preservation. The stumps are exposed in an elongated depression (~100 m long, ~1 m deep) nested in a trough of the northwest–southeast trending Holocene sand ridges and troughs with 2–5 m vertical relief and ~0.5 km wavelength. Radiocarbon ages of the wood were infinite thus optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating was used to constrain the site’s age. Below the Holocene sands (~0.1–4 m thick), separated by a regional erosional unconformity, are Late Pleistocene mud-peat (72±8 ka OSL), mud-sand (63±5, 73±6 ka OSL), and palaeosol (56±5 ka OSL) facies that grade laterally from west to east, respectively. Foraminiferal analysis reveals the location of the terrestrial-marine transitional layer above the Pleistocene facies in an interbedded sand and mud facies (3940±30 (1σ) 14C a BP), which is part of a lower shoreface or marine-dominated estuarine environment. The occurrence of palaeosol and swamp facies of broadly similar ages and elevation suggests the glacial landscape possessed topographic relief that allowed wood, mud and peats to be preserved for ~50 ka of subaerial exposure before transitioning to the modern marine environment. We hypothesize that rapid sea-level rise occurring ~60 or ~40 ka ago provided opportunities for local flood-plain aggradation to bury the swamp thus preserving the stumps and that other sites may exist in the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf.  相似文献   
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What have been the moral values and practices allowing equitable economic opportunities and a sense of fairness in North American small-scale fisheries? How have these “moral economies” been affected by neoliberal policies with their emphasis on efficiency, rational self-interest, and wealth accumulation? Focusing especially on the salmon and halibut fisheries in British Columbia, Canada, this discussion summarizes key findings on the manner in which small-scale fisheries and their moral practices tend to be marginalized and undervalued under neoliberal regimes. The paper considers the value of these moral economies for promoting social, economic, and ecological welfare as grounds for the expansion of small-scale fisheries.  相似文献   
7.
Prabir Dasgupta  Priyanka Manna 《Earth》2011,104(1-3):186-198
The grain-flow has so far been defined with reference to the distinctive sediment-support mechanism, the dispersive pressure. The role of sediment-support mechanism, however, is required in a multiphase flow to prevent the gravitational settling of the particles through the driving medium during the flow. In a single-phase flow of non-cohesive grains no such secondary mechanism is required to counteract the gravitational pull, the driving force of the flow. So the definition of grain-flow needs a critical revision. This, in turn, involves proper understanding of the grain-flow mechanism, so that the relation between the process and the product can be properly established. The most distinctive feature often demonstrated by a grain-flow deposit is the particle size segregation, which leads to the development of inverse grading. The available explanations for this phenomenon find theoretical constraints. In the present study an attempt was made to understand the mechanism of single-phase non-cohesive granular flow of different flow regime and the particle segregation pattern in the resultant deposit through laboratory simulation. The experimental observations revealed that no sustained granular flow sets in on a slope deviating much from the limiting value of the angle of repose of the granular material. A persistent simple shear flow develops on slopes of this critical value. Each of the grains rolls in response to simple shearing. If the shear stress attains a critical value, theoretically the larger grains can even climb up the adjacent smaller ones towards the down-slope direction. In reality, however, high angle climb is not very common. The larger grains preferably roll over the smaller grains when the common tangent becomes almost horizontal or makes a very low angle with the direction of flow, and by this process gradually reaches the upper surface of the flow causing the development of inverse grading. The upper surface of the resultant deposit remains parallel to the sloping substratum. These properties readily distinguish this variety of granular flow from the other natural flows, and the flow may thus be assigned the distinct status of grain-flow.  相似文献   
8.
The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation systems have been systematically applied to the mesoscale circulation environment of the California Current to demonstrate the performance and practical utility of the various components of ROMS 4D-Var. In particular, we present a comparison of three approaches to 4D-Var, namely: the primal formulation of the incremental strong constraint approach; the dual formulation “physical-space statistical analysis system”; and the dual formulation indirect representer approach. In agreement with theoretical considerations all three approaches converge to the same ocean circulation estimate when using the same observations and prior information. However, the rate of convergence of the dual formulation was found to be inferior to that of the primal formulation. Other aspects of the 4D-Var performance that relate to the use of multiple outer-loops, preconditioning, and the weak constraint are also explored. A systematic evaluation of the impact of the various components of the 4D-Var control vector (i.e. the initial conditions, surface forcing and open boundary conditions) is also presented. It is shown that correcting for uncertainties in the model initial conditions exerts the largest influence on the ability of the model to fit the available observations. Various important diagnostics of 4D-Var are also examined, including estimates of the posterior error, the information content of the observation array, and innovation-based consistency checks on the prior error assumptions. Using these diagnostic tools, we find that more than 90% of the observations assimilated into the model provide redundant information. This is a symptom of the large percentage of satellite data that are used and to some extent the nature of the data processing employed. This is the second in a series of three papers describing the ROMS 4D-Var systems.  相似文献   
9.
The evolution of the North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography (NEMURO) family of models to study marine ecosystems is reviewed. Applications throughout the North Pacific have shown the models to be robust and to be able to reproduce 1D, 2D and 3D components of nutrient, carbon cycle and biogeochemical cycles as well as aspects of the lower trophic levels ecosystem (phyto- and zooplankton). NEMURO For Including Saury and Herring, an extension that includes higher trophic levels, can be run uncoupled or coupled to NEMURO. In the uncoupled mode, the growth and weight of an individual fish is computed using plankton densities simulated by NEMURO but with no feedback between fish consumption and plankton mortality. In the coupled mode, the feeding, growth and weight of a representative fish are computed, and prey removals due to feeding by fish appear as mortality terms on the prey. The NEMURO family of models continues to evolve, including effects of the microbial loop and iron limitation at lower trophic levels, and full life cycle, multi-species and multi-generational simulations at higher trophic levels. We outline perspectives for future end-to-end modeling efforts that can be used to study marine ecosystems in response to global environmental change.  相似文献   
10.
Since the first limited entry Bristol Bay drift and set gillnet permits were issued in 1975, many local residents have sold their permits to non-resident fishermen. Declining local permit ownership destabilizes the main economic base of the region. Previous studies have documented the decline of locally owned permits and have proposed social and economic hypotheses that could explain why local permit ownership is declining in limited entry fisheries in Alaska. To stem the outward flow of permits, the Bristol Bay Economic Development Corporation operates a Permit Loan Program to assist Bristol Bay watershed residents in buying permits. Despite its generous benefits, it has not reversed the decline in local permit ownership. This paper examines why residents enter or exit the fishery. Hypotheses on permit retention were tested through interviews with Bristol Bay fishery participants. Interviewees indicate stronger cultural and familial ties than economic factors to fishing. As local permit ownership has declined, these ties are being lost, leading to declining interest in the fishery. Commercial fishing is a competitive and costly enterprise. Successful participants in the fisheries, especially the drift gillnet fishery, are financially savvy with supplemental non-fishing income that outcompete residents by catching most of the fish. The Bristol Bay Economic Development Corporation Permit Loan Program appears unable to stop the local loss of permits. There are no obvious ways to expand local permit ownership and retaining local permits remains a major challenge for the region. However, it is important for local residents to participate in the fishery because it keeps communities economically and socially healthy, gives residents access to their local resources and strengthens their voice in managing their local resources.  相似文献   
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